Challenging circumstances are a fact of leadership, and most leaders have dealt with many. However, these are uniquely challenging times –marked by persistent volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, or VUCA. And where there is VUCA, there are unusually difficult problems. Lots of them.
A talk at a recent meeting of the newest Executive Leadership in Academic Medicine/Executive Leadership in Health Care class reminded me that defining challenging problems is foundational to successfully navigating them. Here’s what leaders need to know to make progress in even the most VUCA of times.
Simple, complicated and complex problems
Few problems leaders face are truly simple — they likely wouldn’t land on a leader’s desk if they were. But some problems are more straightforward than others, making solutions clearer and easier to implement. Figuring out if a problem is simple, complicated or complex is an important first step in analyzing the work a leader needs to do to develop a solution.
Simple problems are characterized by straightforward pathways for solving them, limited need for expertise to do so, and relatively standard outcomes. An example of a simple problem is roasting a turkey for a holiday meal. There is a recipe to follow; the tools and inputs needed to complete the task are straightforward and accessible, and it’s easy to determine whether you have succeeded.
Complicated problems are a little different. They are typically multifaceted, layered and large in scope and implications. But they are also generally linear in their solutions. Layers can be unraveled into individual threads, and each attempt at a solution can be iterative. It is possible to tease out cause and effect, and interventions are likely to have clear and predictable results.
Solving complicated problems is not necessarily easy, and it does require some expertise. Consider something like building a bridge or a multi-lane expressway. Daunting (and not something to try without engineering expertise!), but with the right knowledge,experience, materials and processes, it can be done, though iteration is likely necessary as barriers or new possibilities emerge.
Conversely, complex problems are quite messy. They involve difficult-to-trace interactions among contributing factors; cause and effect are not necessarily clear or consistent; and the whole problem is more than the sum of its parts. Each version of the problem is a little different — or very different. As a result, there is unlikely to be clear consensus on effective solutions, and interventions frequently cause unintended consequences.
Complex problems are often managed by creating systems that influence their impact, rather than implementing a discrete solution. An example of a complex problem might be helping your teenager navigate adolescence successfully. Each child is unique, with a different set of issues and needs. There are no clear rules, and even if you find a solution, applying it may help — or it could make the problem worse. You can setup guardrails (i.e., systems) that influence your adolescent, but there is no single solution for any teenager, let alone all of them!
This framework (which also includes another type of problem,the chaotic problem) was originally described by Snowden and Boone and is known as the Cynefin Framework. Today, it feels more relevant to leaders than ever.
Wicked problems — a special scenario
Some leaders face singular problems known as wicked problems.They are especially challenging because even defining the issues at hand can be fraught. First described by Rittel and Weber in 1973, these problems have 10 defining characteristics:
There is no definitive formulation.
There is no clear signal that a solution has been found.
Solutions can’t be defined as true or false; rather, they depend on judgment calls, such as good or bad.
There are no immediate or ultimate tests of solutions, given their profound ripple effects.
Solutions can’t be developed through trial and error; they are “one-shot” scenarios.
There is no way to determine whether all solutions have been identified.
Every wicked problem is different from every other wicked problem.
Any wicked problem could be seen as a consequence of another problem.
Any discrepancies can be explained in multiple ways, each of which suggests a different set of solutions.
Problem solvers are accountable for the outcomes of any actions they take.
Wicked problems are often one-of-a-kind scenarios — the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent social justice crisis are recent examples —with little to no historical precedent to guide solutions. Interventions often create new problems, and wicked problems may simply not be fully solvable. Yet leaders are often called on to try.
Addressing problems in a VUCA world
It’s worth investing time in defining the type of problem you are facing because each requires a different level of leadership commitment. Each also warrants different ways of defining and measuring success. Getting clear from the start enables everyone involved to outline goals they can effectively work toward — no matter how thorny the challenge.
Once you’ve defined the type of problem you are dealing with,it’s time to get to work.
Dealing with complicated problems
These linear problems are solvable with rational thought,expertise and resources. Work with people who understand the problem best to clarify the resources you need, then start implementing your solution. With the right team, capacity and support needed to solve your complicated problem, you will get it done.
Dealing with complex problems
Don’t expect a single solution if you are facing a complex problem. The most effective leaders build systems, and that’s exactly what your complex problem requires. Assemble a team with expertise and agility to change course as the landscape shifts in real time. Work together to create a system to manage your complex problem. Test and refine it, then make it a permanent part of how you work.
Dealing with wicked problems
Wicked problems need systems interventions, but what’s especially important here is outlining a commitment to continually working on your problem. Because no matter how effectively you tackle it, you are unlikely to make it go away entirely.
Consider a wicked problem like providing ethical and compassionate care for an aging population. Committing to fully solving this problem in the near future is simply not productive or practical. There are so many stakeholders, perspectives and moving parts that even incremental progress requires intensive work and resources. But leaders can reasonably commit to working on problems like this over the long term. This commitment will give shape to the work that comes next.
Put another way, think in practical terms about what achievable success looks like. If you can’t fully solve something, what can you do?Interim and incremental targets that represent meaningful progress can be extremely helpful.
Your antidote to VUCA
All this talk of big and sometimes unsolvable problems may have you bemoaning the state of the world. That’s reasonable. And yet I hope it also has you thinking about how you can reinforce your ability to lead in this VUCA world. Because there are antidotes to volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
Leaders can sharpen their ability to navigate VUCA by embracing the principles of VUCA Prime, a model created by scholar Bob Johansen. Here’s what it looks like, adapted from the Agile Change Leadership Institute:
Vision to navigate volatility
Understanding to mitigate uncertainty
Clarity to see through complexity
Agility to manage ambiguity
VUCA Prime is about articulating a vision that keeps your team focused in a volatile world, taking the time needed to fully understand the drivers of uncertainty so you can disarm it, distilling complexity into clear direction, and creating frameworks that can flex quickly and effectively when things change.
Leading in a VUCA world
Given the nature of VUCA, no single model or resource is going to provide all the answers leaders need. Developing the skills to lead effectively through VUCA is an ongoing journey for even the most seasoned,skilled leaders.
That said, there are things you can do to rapidly enhance your ability to lead through VUCA.
Delegate the simple problems
The more VUCA demands your attention, the less bandwidth you will have for simple problems. Hire the right people to manage these, then trust and empower them to do so.
Build a strong team
Leading through VUCA is not for everyone. Your leadership team doesn’t need to be packed with thrill-seekers, but it’s important that everyone be ready and willing to roll up their sleeves to take risks, make tough calls and coexist with the conditions of VUCA.
Nonlinear, flexible thinking and an ability to ask (and help answer) difficult questions are essential to teasing apart difficult problems and landing on the unconventional solutions they often require. Look for people who have a variety of work and life experiences, as well as deep curiosity,when hiring.
Prioritize resilience across the team
Navigating VUCA can be a lot of things, and they aren’t all bad: invigorating, educational and satisfying, to name a few. One thing it will never be, though, is easy. That’s why organizations must champion healthy working habits, including encouraging and modeling use of paid time off from work, providing support for a fulfilling personal life and embracing other tenets of workplace well-being.
It's also extremely helpful to examine and potentially shift expectations around working hours and calendar management. The challenges of VUCA require time for deep work, where hours spent reading, writing and mind-mapping can move solutions forward far more quickly than back-to-back meetings.
In fact, sometimes the most important work of problem-solving doesn’t look like work at all. Consider the value of intentional rest. Things like long walks in the woods, losing oneself in an hour of music making or another creative pursuit. In fact, schedules that balanced periods of focused work with deep play sparked some of humanity’s greatest breakthroughs (think Darwin). Evidence suggests these practices can serve us equally well today, as we seek to unlock the new thinking required to thrive in our VUCA world.
Staying positive in a VUCA world
It’s easy to get caught up in the VUCA-ness of our world,but there is so much good! We all have different touchstones that keep us grounded. One of the most important in my life is community. To that end, I’d like to invite you to The Bespoke Life Network, my community for people who seek to create good in their lives and the world around them. It’s free, and you’ll find conversation and connections that help you do the same. A wonderful antidote to VUCA, indeed.
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